What is the Bitcoin 200-week moving average?
The 200-week moving average (200WMA) is the average of Bitcoin's weekly closing price over the last 200 weeks (about 3.8 years). Because it spans almost a full market cycle, it is a very slow, smooth line that filters out short-term noise.
In the chart, the orange line is the weekly price and the violet line is the 200-week average (shown on a logarithmic scale so old and new cycles are comparable). Below it, the table shows BTC's monthly return for each month and year, green for gains and red for losses.
This is descriptive market data, not investment advice.
Why do people watch the 200-week moving average?
Because over Bitcoin's history the weekly price has rarely closed below this average, and those moments coincided with deep bear-market lows. It is a widely cited reference level. We only describe where price sits relative to it; we do not predict what it will do next.
What does the "distance" figure mean?
It is how far the current price is above (or below) the 200-week average, in percent. A large positive distance means price is stretched far above its long-term mean; near zero means it is close to it. It is an arithmetic fact, not a signal to buy or sell.
How is the monthly returns table calculated?
Each cell is the percentage change of BTC within that calendar month (open to close), from Binance monthly candles. The "Year" column compounds the available months of that year. Past returns do not imply future results.
Where does the data come from?
Weekly and monthly closing prices come from Binance (BTCUSDT, no API key). The average is computed live over the last 200 weekly closes; nothing is stored.